Due to Fox's previous ruling that all candidate's whom will be participating in this weekends GOP debate must be polling within the state with at least %10 of the vote, Ron Paul will be excluded. The fact is though, Ron Paul has likely outraised avery GOP member for the 4th quarter, and rivaled that of the front runners in the Democratic Party. The NH GOP is fighting back though, because the first of the nations' primary state New Hampshire should include all serious candidates to level the playing field, they say that the likes of Ron Paul should be included.
Read the story HERE from the Baltimore Sun.
In light of Fox's possible exclusion of Ron Paul, NH GOP fights back
Iowa caucuses explained
With the caucuses now less the a day away, let us break down Iowa's unusual caucuses.
For the Democratic Party, caucuses form all around the state based upon specified precincts. Unlike the primaries, where voters pick candidates via ballots, caucuses form and ultimately pick one candidate. Caucuses take place at schools and libraries, and truly are groups of people whom convene and decide whom they like most. For example, one caucus may consist of 100 people. Within that caucus, one candidate will be selected by process of elimination. They use a 15% rule. People break up into the groups of whom they favor. The candidate must receive 15% of the vote. So, if there were 7 candidates, and 3 candidates received 20% each, and the other 4 candidates received 40% combined - but not one getting at least 15%, those people must then pick from the other 3 candidates.`So now, lets call the first three candidates A,B, and C. A ends up after the others were forced to re vote with 40%, B the same, and C now has only 20%. C is forced to re vote between the top 2. Now B has 55%, and A only %45. B wins. And then that county or precincts caucus sends their vote tally to their respective headquarters.
For the Republican Party, its a different story. Secret ballots determine delegates. "The vote determines which delegates, representing which candidates, will attend county conventions. There, delegates are chosen for state congressional district conventions, where delegate to national convention are picked.
The Republicans use a winner-take-all system. Whichever candidate wins the caucuses takes all of the delegates for the state."
I hope that helps as I saw that on CNN this and referenced another article i posted previously.
Here it is as explained in further detail by wiki "The Iowa caucus operates very differently from the more common primary election used by most other states (see U.S. presidential primary). The caucus is generally defined as a "gathering of neighbors." Rather than going to polls and casting ballots, Iowans gather at a set location in each of Iowa's 1784 precincts. Typically, these meetings occur in schools, churches, or public libraries. The caucuses are held every two years, but the ones that receive national attention are the presidential preference caucuses held every four years. In addition to the voting and the presidential preference choices, caucus-goers begin the process of writing their parties’ platforms by introducing resolutions. [1]
Unlike the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary, the Iowa caucus does not result directly in national delegates for each candidate. Instead, caucus-goers elect delegates to county conventions, who elect delegates to district and state conventions where the national convention delegates are selected.[citation needed]
The Republicans and Democrats each hold their own set of caucuses subject to their own particular rules that change from time to time. Participants in each party's caucuses must be registered with that party. Participants can change their registration at the caucus location. Additionally, 17-year-olds can participate, as long as they will be 18 years old by the date of the general election. Observers are allowed to attend, as long as they do not become actively involved in the debate and voting process.
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"What you need to know about the caucuses"
IOWA FAQ from AJC.com
What you need to know about the caucuses
FROM STAFF REPORTS
Published on: 01/02/08
Thursday's nights caucuses in Iowa combine high-stakes politics and old-style community meetings. The results will shape the GOP and Democratic campaigns and spark some candidates to drop out from the 2008 White House race.
The caucuses are such a big deal in Iowa that a musical was written about them. laywright Robert John Ford sits on the set for 'CAUCUS! The Musical' in Des Moines. The play centers on Iowa farmer Eldon Wise and his family, who the media has dubbed 'the typical Iowa caucus-goers.' Like other Iowans, they're bombarded with phone calls, e-mails, negative ads and personal visits -- all of which stir up debate and sometimes rifts between relatives.
RELATED:
• Voter resources, Political Vent, Luckovich and calendars
• National campaign news
Q. Which candidates are on the ballot in Iowa?
A. Republicans: Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson. Democrats: Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Christopher Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson.
Q. How do the caucuses work?
A. In each of Iowa's nearly 2,000 voting precincts, Democrats and Republicans hold separate meetings on caucus night. The meetings can be held almost anywhere - in schools, firehouses, church basements and even living rooms. Anybody registered member of a party can attend that party's meeting.
REPUBLICANS
Republicans vote in the caucuses by secret ballots. The vote determines which delegates, representing which candidates, will attend county conventions. There, delegates are chosen for state congressional district conventions, where delegate to national convention are picked.
The Republicans use a winner-take-all system. Whichever candidate wins the caucuses takes all of the delegates for the state.
DEMOCRATS
The meeting divides into groups, each supporting a particular candidate. If a candidate doesn't have a sufficient percentage of the total number of voters attending, its members join other candidates' groups. When that redistribution finally ends with groups of sufficient size, the delegates are divided among them according to the percentage of the meetings' attendees they represent. The process then proceeds through the county and state conventions. At the national convention, the candidates receive delegates proportionately, rather than the winner taking all of the state's delegates.
Q. What time do the caucuses begin (local time)?
A. Regardless of the date, the Democratic caucuses will begin at 6:30 p.m. (doors open at 6) while Republicans begin at 7 p.m.
Q. What time are the caucuses finished?
A. Most should be done by 8 p.m. At some, people like to argue politics and platforms, but the presidential voting should be done by 8 or so, unless the turnout is large and unwieldy. That could happen with all the interest being generated in this election.
Q. How does a caucus differ from a primary election?
A. Unlike a caucus, a primary is carried out in a virtually identical manner to a general election contest, with participants going to polling place or, depending on state election procedures, voting at home for their preferred candidates. A primary election attracts a broader swath of the electorate, in part because it requires a shorter time commitment. A caucus takes longer to conduct and tends to attract dedicated party activists.
Q. Where are these caucuses held?
A. In a wide variety of locations such as schools, churches, community centers, public libraries and even private homes.
Q. Can a presidential candidate fare poorly in Iowa and still recover and win the nomination?
A. Historical caucus results have spawned a conventional wisdom that there are "three tickets out of Iowa." In every contested Iowa caucus since 1972, only once has a presidential candidate finished worse than third and gone on to become his party's presidential candidates.
Q. The weather often affects turnout. What is the outlook?
A. Mostly sunny, with a high of 29 degrees, a low of 22.
Q. What is the turnout prediction?
A: 120,000-150,000 Democrats; 80,000-90,000 Republicans
Q. What's the "Iowa bounce"?
A. The momentum gained by a candidate who exceeds expectations in Iowa.
How the 2008 Presidential Election process takes place - Primaries and Caucuses, Results
Many friends and family are confused as to exactly how candidates are selected for party nomination, and how they end up representing a major political party in the general election. Well, let me break it down for you in simple terms.
The process kicks off (for the two major political parties in the US) with candidates battling for their parties nomination by competing in each state's primary election or caucus. After a nominee is selected, they move on to the general election, where our President is chosen.
Let us start with dates for caucuses and primaries:
Here is a slick calender - that details state by state primaries and caucuses
Find another similar handy PDF here
Next, if you haven't registered to vote do so
Here it is. with the State by state voter registration guide.
Then, let us proceed to what you really came for, more info on the primary election and caucus process.
Here is info on the general election process.
The following are two places tracking the Caucus and Primaries results.
This is the best one from CNN. Just scroll down, and to the left is a map of the US where you can select the state.
Here is another place that tracks results of the primaries and caucuses. Nothing has been published here yet.
In addition, here is Iowa for a live example of recent caucuses.
Here is the Iowa Caucus explained, as it is a bit different than all the rest of the caucuses.
Here is a Q&A on caucuses.
Here is Iowa caucus results
Wyoming Results too can be found HERE
I hope this helps.
Iowa and New Hampshire 2008 Presidential Polls
Keep in mind when looking at these polls, they are merely based off of past voters being polled, hence, any newcomers will not be polled. So, say for example - you have switched parties and or had never voted before, or don't own a landline - their vote may have been missed - skewing results. Thus, a sample error of + or - %5 might not be truly accurate, some could argue it may be as high as %10-20. However, it is what it is and this is what we have:
Check out Iowa caucus results here.
Iowa's primary vote for both major parties will be on Jan 3.,2008.
New Hampshire results here
New Hampshire's primary vote for both major parties will be on Jan 8.,2008.
"Tancredo expected to drop out of presidential race"
See the story here.
Update: He did drop out, see that story here
Top 10 reasons why you shouldn't look to the Mainstream Media for your presidential candidate analysis
There are various reasons why you shouldn't look to the Mainstream Media (MSM) for your presidential candidate analysis - here are my top 10;
1. Their objectives are biased and not the same as your's and mine. Billionaires that own the television/radio companies have great influence over their coverage, and will force their choice on you and me, and smear or spin in a negative light -anyone they disagree with or that disagrees with them. And, this is their right.
2. Lesser known candidates will hardly have a chance to see the light of day, because nobody will advertise to small audiences. Major advertisers want major markets, not numerous different and immeasurable slices of audiences.
3. You become dependent on a few news sources, and rarely become engaged in discussion or critical thinking. If we have everyone else doing the analysis, how could we know that they are feeding us BS? Do you trust everything everyone says?
4. Quality journalism is scarce. Anymore, mainstream news is prepackaged, bottled, and shipped out over the airwaves, without any investigation - merely regurgitation and manipulation by each source.
5. They generalize and forcefully classify us into a few groups of their choosing. They make us conform to their needs.
6. Ignorance is not bliss for the rest of us. We must compensate for the damage the media does to the less knowledgeable folk by taking hours to explain the truth as we see it.
7. They focus on trivial, wedge issues, rather than the most important factors to our country’s prosperity and sovereignty.
8. They focus too much on polls that are based upon previous voters. Technology has changed, polling techniques have not. With less landlines and different demographics each election – polls are merely tiny indicators – not the bottom line they make them out to be.
9. They focus too much on personal lives, rather than what the candidate will do and how they stand on various issues. Of course, to a certain extent – personal lives could be relevant – if say, the candidate committed a crime – but most people don’t care what Mike Huckabee’s son did in boy scouts – I sure the hell don’t and I dislike the Huckster the same.
10. They focus on tiny abstract pieces, not the entire picture.
Thanks for taking the time to read this, and please offer your reasons and explain these views to your friends and family – so “We the People” can become more informed and truly make the difference that the MSM has failed at.
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